Is 2026 the Start of Something Bigger for the Saints?

Posted: July 8, 2026 | Author: frankarr | Filed under: Personal, SaintsFooty | Leave a comment

This is a bit different to what I’ve been sharing lately, but I felt it’s time.

I’ve been a Saints member for over 40 years. I know what a false dawn looks like. 2009 felt like a turning point. So did 2011. So, honestly, did 2020.

So when I say 2026 feels different, I want to show my working.

What the numbers actually say

After Round 17, St Kilda sit 12th with a 7-9 record. That sounds ordinary. But compare it to where we were at the same point last year, 5 wins and 10 losses, and the shift is real.

The number that stands out isn’t the win-loss record. It’s percentage.

In 2025, we finished with 88.5%, meaning we were being outscored on average, consistently, across the whole season. In 2026, we’re sitting at 105.5%. That’s a 17-point swing. We’ve gone from a team that loses the scoreboard to one that wins it more often than not. That’s not a lucky run. That’s something structural changing.

Scoring is up 11 points per game. We’re conceding 4 fewer. We’ve beaten Carlton away. We beat Port Adelaide in the rain at Gather Round. There are wins on that list that we simply didn’t have in us last year.

The injury story is brutal

Here’s the honest part.

We went into 2026 having recruited Tom De Koning ($1.7 million per year, seven-year deal), Sam Flanders, Liam Ryan, and Jack Silvagni. That’s a serious list rebuild. The expectation from the club, from media, from fans was that this was the year we stopped rebuilding and started contending.

De Koning fractured two ribs and punctured a lung in Round 16. He was taken to hospital from the ground. Flanders tore his Achilles in May and posted “see you next year” on Instagram. Jack Sinclair, dual All-Australian, tore his calf and is effectively done for the season. Max King is still not back.

Three of four marquee recruits. Gone.

That’s not an excuse. It’s context. Any honest assessment of 2026 has to sit with the fact that the team we planned to run never actually took the field.

What’s actually working

Liam Ryan has been everything we hoped for. Career-high six goals in one game, five in another. He adds exactly the forward volatility that Lyon-coached teams have historically lacked. That’s not nothing.

And then there’s Nas.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera had 46 disposals against Essendon in Round 17 one short of Leigh Montagna’s St Kilda club record of 47, set in 2013. When he goes, we go. He’s Brownlow Medal quality. He’s ours until 2027, at $2 million a year.

That last part matters more than it sounds. If we don’t make a genuine finals run next year, retaining him becomes a real conversation.

The wildcard, and what it means

The 2026 finals format includes a wildcard round, top 10 qualify, not top 8. That’s the only reason we’re still talking about finals. We’re four points out of the ten, with percentage that beats Carlton and North Melbourne on any tiebreaker.

Can we do it? Mathematically, yes. Win the next three and we’re level on points with both, ahead on percentage.

Realistically with Sinclair gone, De Koning gone, and one win from the last five, it’s a stretch. Port Adelaide at home on Saturday is winnable. Geelong away the week after is not where struggling teams find form.

Is this the start of something bigger?

The percentage says yes. The list trajectory says probably. The injury crisis says we won’t know for sure until 2027.

What I can say is this: we’re a better football team than we were 12 months ago. We just haven’t been able to show it consistently, because we spent half the year in the medical room.

And there’s one more thing. Ross Lyon had dinner with Lachie Neale. He coached him at Fremantle. Collingwood are frontrunners, but we’re genuinely in the mix. If Neale lands at Marvel Stadium, 2027 doesn’t look like more of the same. It looks like a different conversation entirely.

I’ve been wrong before. Many times. But for the first time in a while, I think the underlying picture is pointing the right direction. Not because I’m an optimist, though I am, it’s a medical condition for Saints supporters, but because the data is starting to back it up.

Ask me again after Port Adelaide on Saturday. 🔴⚪️🖤

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Frank Arrigo has been a St Kilda FC member for over 40 years. He writes about technology, AI, and occasionally his football club at frankarr.com.

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